Academic bookHow Brands Grow: What Marketers Don't Know
Byron Sharp · 2010 · Oxford University Press (Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science)A summary of decades of buying-behaviour data across many product categories and countries, which finds that the same patterns hold almost everywhere: brands grow mainly by being bought by more people, not by being bought more often by loyal fans, and most of any brand's buyers are occasional ones. Growth comes from being easy to think of and easy to buy.
- Bigger brands have more buyers and, as a consequence, slightly more loyal ones; small brands suffer twice (fewer buyers who are also less loyal), a pattern called double jeopardy.
- Most of a brand's sales come from light buyers who rarely think about it, so marketing aimed only at heavy or loyal customers reaches a minority of the sales.
- Brands in a category share their customers with each other in proportion to size; a niche of exclusive customers is rare.
- Growth follows mental availability (being thought of in buying situations) and physical availability (being easy to find and buy), built by consistent, distinctive, wide-reaching marketing rather than persuasion.
For your business: Reach every likely buyer in your area, not only the current customers; keep the name, look and message the same everywhere so you are recognized; and make the business easy to find and easy to buy from. Loyalty programmes rarely grow a business on their own.
Evidence: Empirical generalizations from large purchase panels, mostly consumer goods and large brands; the patterns are well replicated, though the leap to small service businesses is the reader's
Meta-analysis or reviewThe Long and the Short of It: Balancing Short and Long-Term Marketing Strategies
Les Binet and Peter Field · 2013 · Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), LondonAn analysis of about a thousand advertising case studies submitted to the IPA Effectiveness Awards, comparing campaigns that aimed at immediate sales with those that built the brand over years. Short-term activation produces quick, measurable but fading sales lifts; brand building produces slower, larger and longer-lasting effects, and the two work best together.
- Sales activation (offers, direct response) shows results within weeks and fades; brand building (being known and preferred) takes six months or more to show and keeps working after the spending stops.
- Across the cases, campaigns that split spending around 60% brand and 40% activation produced the largest long-term business effects; the balance shifts with the category.
- Campaigns built on emotion and fame outperformed purely rational ones on long-term profit, while rational messages did better on immediate response.
- Brands whose share of category advertising exceeded their share of the market tended to grow; the reverse tended to shrink.
For your business: Keep part of the budget on being remembered (the name, the vans, the signage, the reviews, the consistent look) even when the offers are what you can measure this month. Measuring only the immediate response undercounts what marketing does.
Evidence: Large case base but self-selected award entries from big advertisers; the 60/40 rule is an average, not a law, and small-budget businesses are underrepresented
Peer-reviewed studyEffects of Word-of-Mouth Versus Traditional Marketing: Findings from an Internet Social Networking Site
Michael Trusov, Randolph E. Bucklin and Koen Pauwels · 2009 · Journal of Marketing, 73(5)Using daily data from a social networking site, the authors measured how new sign-ups responded to word-of-mouth referrals from existing members against the site's own marketing events and media coverage. Word of mouth had a far larger and much longer-lasting effect on new customers per unit than either traditional channel.
- A referral's effect on new sign-ups lasted about three weeks, against three to seven days for events and media.
- Per unit, word of mouth was roughly twenty times as effective as marketing events and thirty times as effective as media appearances at bringing in new members.
- The value of a referral can be priced, which lets a business decide what a referral incentive is worth.
- Traditional marketing still mattered, partly because it stimulated the word of mouth.
For your business: A referral is worth many times an advertising impression and keeps working for weeks. Put a system behind referrals (ask, make it easy, thank) and count them as a channel with a value, not as luck.
Evidence: Rigorous time-series study, but of one online service; the exact multiples will differ for a plumbing firm, though the direction is consistent with other studies
Peer-reviewed studyThe Effect of Word of Mouth on Sales: Online Book Reviews
Judith A. Chevalier and Dina Mayzlin · 2006 · Journal of Marketing Research, 43(3)By comparing the same books' reviews and sales ranks on two competing online retailers over time, the authors isolated the effect of customer reviews on sales. Better reviews raised relative sales, customers read the reviews rather than only counting stars, and a bad review hurt more than a good one helped.
- An improvement in a book's reviews on one site raised its relative sales there, controlling for everything the two sites shared.
- One-star reviews had a larger effect on sales than five-star reviews did: negative word of mouth weighs more.
- Sales responded to the content of reviews, not only the average rating, which suggests customers read them.
- Most reviews were positive, so a single bad one stood out.
For your business: Reviews move sales, and a bad one moves them more than a good one. Ask every satisfied customer for a review so the average is built on many, and answer the bad ones promptly and well, because the next customer reads the reply.
Evidence: Careful natural experiment with a clean identification strategy; books, not local services, but the pattern has been replicated widely since
Working paperReviews, Reputation, and Revenue: The Case of Yelp.com
Michael Luca · 2016 (working paper first issued 2011) · Harvard Business School Working Paper 12-016Matching Yelp reviews to restaurant revenue records in Seattle, the study estimated what a change in rating does to sales. A one-star increase in a restaurant's Yelp rating raised its revenue by roughly five to nine per cent, and the effect fell entirely on independent restaurants; chains, whose reputation is already known, were unaffected.
- A one-star higher Yelp rating was associated with about 5% to 9% more revenue for an independent restaurant.
- Chain restaurants showed no effect, consistent with reviews mattering most where the customer has no other way to judge.
- Consumers responded more to ratings when the number of reviews was larger, and did not appear to adjust for reviewer quality.
- Independent restaurants gained market share relative to chains as review sites grew.
For your business: For an independent business, the online rating is part of the revenue line. A half-star is worth measurable money; the flow of recent reviews and the replies to them deserve the same attention as the menu or the price list.
Evidence: Widely cited working paper using administrative revenue data; one city and one industry, and later revisions refined the estimate without changing the direction
Practitioner bookThe One Number You Need to Grow
Frederick F. Reichheld · 2003 · Harvard Business Review, December 2003The article that introduced the Net Promoter Score: asking customers how likely they are to recommend the business to a friend, and tracking the share of enthusiastic promoters against detractors. Across the industries studied, that single question tracked growth better than long satisfaction surveys, because a recommendation puts the customer's own reputation on the line.
- The likelihood-to-recommend question correlated with company growth more strongly than other survey questions in most of the industries studied.
- Promoters (9 or 10 out of 10) and detractors (0 to 6) behave differently; the passive middle contributes little to growth.
- A short, regular question answered by many customers beats a long survey answered by few.
- The score is a starting point for finding out why, not an end in itself.
For your business: One question after every job, tracked monthly, tells you whether the referral engine is filling or draining. It is cheap, and it is a number a buyer will ask for.
Evidence: Influential practitioner article based on Bain's consulting data; later academic work found the score no better than other satisfaction measures at predicting growth, though it remains a useful, simple habit
Practitioner bookStop Trying to Delight Your Customers
Matthew Dixon, Karen Freeman and Nicholas Toman · 2010 · Harvard Business Review, July–August 2010A study of tens of thousands of customers' service interactions found that going beyond expectations did little to build loyalty, while making it hard for a customer to get a problem solved reliably destroyed it. Reducing the customer's effort (repeat calls, transfers, switching channels, having to explain again) predicted loyalty far better than delight.
- Exceeding expectations in a service interaction barely raised loyalty; meeting them was what mattered.
- Customers who had to make a high effort to resolve an issue were far more likely to be disloyal and to say bad things about the company.
- The biggest drivers of effort were repeat contacts, transfers between people and having to repeat information.
- A Customer Effort Score, asked after an interaction, predicted repurchase and referral better than satisfaction.
For your business: Reliability beats wow. Make the ordinary interaction effortless: one call, one person, no repeating, a problem fixed the first time. That protects the referrals that most small businesses live on.
Evidence: Large survey dataset from the Corporate Executive Board's service practice; correlational and drawn from larger companies' call centres, but consistent with what small-business owners observe
Practitioner bookThe Mismanagement of Customer Loyalty
Werner Reinartz and V. Kumar · 2002 · Harvard Business Review, July 2002Drawing on customer data from four companies, the authors tested the belief that loyal customers are the most profitable. They found the link weak: some long-standing customers cost more to serve than they earn, some short-term customers are very profitable, and loyal customers do not reliably pay more or spread the word. The remedy is to measure profitability by customer, not only tenure.
- The correlation between how long customers stayed and how much profit they generated was weak in all four companies studied.
- Long-standing customers often demanded and received better prices and more service, eroding their profitability.
- Loyal customers were not markedly more likely to recommend the company than others.
- Sorting customers by both loyalty and profitability, and treating each group differently, outperformed loyalty programmes applied to everyone.
For your business: Know what each customer earns you after the cost of serving them. The oldest account is not automatically the best one, and the discounts that keep it may be what makes it unprofitable.
Evidence: Practitioner article grounded in the authors' academic work with company datasets; four firms, business-to-business and mail order, so the specifics vary
Peer-reviewed studyReturn on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy
Roland T. Rust, Katherine N. Lemon and Valarie A. Zeithaml · 2004 · Journal of Marketing, 68(1)A framework for treating marketing spending as an investment: a marketing action changes how customers see the business, which changes what they buy and for how long, which changes the lifetime value of the customer base (customer equity). Comparing the change in customer equity with what the action cost gives a return on marketing that can be compared across projects.
- Marketing spending can be evaluated like any other investment when its effect is traced through customer perceptions to customer lifetime value.
- The drivers of customer equity (value, brand and the relationship) differ by industry, so the same dollar returns differently depending on where it is spent.
- Small changes in retention or switching behaviour compound into large changes in customer equity.
- The approach lets a business compare a price change, a service improvement and an advertising campaign on one basis.
For your business: The question a lender asks about a marketing loan, what comes back for each dollar in, is the one this framework answers. Trace every marketing dollar to customers won or kept, times what a customer is worth; the Business Development Plan does the arithmetic.
Evidence: Peer-reviewed framework with an airline application; a way of thinking more than a benchmark, and it needs the business's own numbers to work
Practitioner bookObviously Awesome: How to Nail Product Positioning so Customers Get It, Buy It, Love It
April Dunford · 2019 · Ambient PressA step-by-step method for positioning, drawn from the author's work launching technology products: list the real alternatives a customer would choose instead, identify what you have that they do not, translate that into value the customer cares about, name the customers who care most, and choose the market category that makes the value obvious.
- Positioning is context: the same product is judged differently depending on what the customer compares it with, so the choice of comparison is the first decision.
- Start from the customers who love the product and work out what they have in common, rather than from what the founder thinks is special.
- Features matter only as the value they produce for a defined customer; the value, not the feature, is what to say.
- Positioning is a team decision that has to be written down and used consistently, or it drifts.
For your business: Do the exercise once, honestly: who would they hire instead, what do you have that they do not, and for whom does that matter most? The sentence that comes out of it belongs on the first screen of the website and in the mouth of everyone who sells.
Evidence: Author's consulting experience with many technology launches; a method, not a test, and the examples are software, though the logic applies to any business
Practitioner bookTraction: How Any Startup Can Achieve Explosive Customer Growth
Gabriel Weinberg and Justin Mares · 2015 · Portfolio / PenguinBuilt from interviews with founders and marketers, the book lists nineteen channels through which businesses find customers (search, referrals, advertising, partnerships, trade shows, sales, content and others) and a method for choosing among them: brainstorm every channel, test the three most promising cheaply and in parallel, measure the cost to win a customer in each, then put the effort into the one that works until it stops.
- Most businesses find that one channel produces the majority of their growth at any given stage, and it is rarely the one the founders assumed.
- Cheap, parallel tests with a decided-in-advance number beat committing to a channel on instinct.
- Channels saturate: the one that works now will stop working, so the testing has to continue.
- Half the effort in an early business should go to finding customers, not only to building the product or service.
For your business: A disciplined way to answer where the next customers come from: test three channels with a small budget and a cost per customer you will accept, decided beforehand, and fund the winner. It is the method behind the channel grid in the Business Development Plan.
Evidence: Founders' interviews and the authors' own experience; anecdotal rather than measured, and written for technology start-ups, but the channel list and the testing discipline transfer